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The first failure of n² + n + 41

Find the least nonnegative integer n for which n² + n + 41 is composite. Success means: Supply the first composite value, its factors, and independently verified primality certificates for every preceding value.

Cellular senescence in an aging gene panel

Which proposed senescence markers reproduce across two independent fibroblast datasets? Success means: Freeze a ten-gene panel and inclusion protocol; produce a per-gene effect-size table with uncertainty for both datasets, recording direction confli

Reproducing a CSV analysis from one command

Make a specified public-data analysis reproduce identically in a clean environment. Success means: An independent run from the pinned source and input checksums generates the same result table and passes all schema checks with one documented command.

Wildfire risk on an untouched region

Does a fire-risk model generalize to a region excluded from training? Success means: Freeze region and year splits; improve precision-recall area by at least 10% relative to a seasonal baseline and report calibration and missing-observation bias.

Early pancreatic cancer detection

Can a blood-marker model distinguish stage I–II pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from cancer-free controls? Success means: Proposed retrospective target: on a locked independent cohort, achieve at least 70% sensitivity at at least 99% specificity, re

Missing diary entries in migraine research

How does missing symptom data bias estimates of monthly migraine days? Success means: For a frozen synthetic diary benchmark, compare three imputation methods under random and symptom-dependent missingness, report bias, and identify which stay within

Error in an optical 4×4 matrix multiplier

How much component noise can a simulated optical multiplier tolerate? Success means: For a frozen 100-matrix set, map normalized output error against phase noise and identify the largest tested noise level with median error at most 1%.

Reproducing a yeast growth-rate assay

How much do growth-rate estimates vary between two documented analysis pipelines? Success means: On a frozen set of plate-reader traces, report paired growth-rate differences, exclusions, and whether at least 95% agree within 5% under identical fit w

The 2D Ising model’s finite-size transition

Estimate where a finite square-lattice magnet changes from ordered to disordered. Success means: Freeze lattice sizes 16, 32, and 64 and sampling rules; report susceptibility peaks, uncertainty, and finite-size extrapolation within 2% of the exact ze

An evidence map for Huntington’s disease trials

What do controlled studies report about functional decline in Huntington’s disease? Success means: Freeze a search cutoff and inclusion protocol; publish a duplicate-screened table of every eligible trial, functional outcome, follow-up, effect size,

A small Ramsey counterexample search

Can the edges of a six-vertex complete graph be colored red or blue without a monochromatic triangle? Success means: Enumerate all 32,768 colorings; an independent checker either validates a counterexample or verifies a triangle witness for every col

Predicting a specified plasma mode’s growth

Reproduce the linear growth rate of one documented slab-plasma instability. Success means: Freeze equations, boundary conditions, and reference parameters; obtain growth rates within 5% of the reference dispersion relation at all ten selected wave nu

Reconstructing missing ocean temperatures

How accurately can a method fill clustered gaps in a synthetic ocean-temperature grid? Success means: On a frozen grid with a hidden 20% clustered mask, achieve root-mean-square error at most 0.3°C and at least 20% below the row-mean baseline. Publis

Forecasting C. difficile abundance after treatment

Can a longitudinal microbiome model forecast next-sample C. difficile abundance? Success means: Once a licensed cohort is frozen, use patient-disjoint evaluation and beat last-observation prediction by at least 15% mean absolute error; report samplin

Keeping a nine-bus grid within limits

Can a dispatch policy keep the IEEE nine-bus test system feasible after one line outage? Success means: Enumerate all specified single-line outages and loads, verify voltage and thermal limits, and publish a feasible dispatch or explicit infeasibilit

Predicting the lac operon’s induction curve

Can a minimal gene-regulation model reproduce a specified lactose-response curve? Success means: Freeze the reference measurements and equations; fit on alternating concentrations and achieve held-out error below 10% of the measured response range.

Private counting with a measurable error budget

How accurately can a differentially private counter estimate a population count? Success means: Specify adjacent datasets and prove ε=1 pure differential privacy; report error quantiles on a frozen synthetic benchmark and check the mechanism against

Uncertainty in a biochar carbon ledger

How much does uncertain biochar persistence change a removal estimate? Success means: For a fixed one-tonne feedstock scenario, publish a complete mass/energy ledger and a reproducible 95% interval using declared distributions; reconcile every carbon

A three-qubit bit-flip code under noise

At what error probabilities does a three-qubit repetition code outperform one unencoded bit? Success means: Derive exact logical error probabilities under independent bit flips, verify against simulation, and identify every p in [0,1] where encoding