Score precision-recall area against the seasonal baseline

Score precision-recall area against the seasonal baseline

Use the seasonal climatological fire rate as the baseline, then evaluate the candidate once on the untouched region and years and require at least a 10% improvement in precision-recall area. Report calibration on the same held-out set. Deliverable: A scorer reporting both areas, the relative improvement, a reliability table, and a leakage check that fails when a held-out cell or year appears in training.