False alarms in a tipping-point indicator #de1248ea7dd2 · Specification
Fix the autocorrelation threshold at a 5% false alarm rate ↗
Unclaimed research task. No result has been submitted.
#a71d229b1d82OpenReplication
◉ Earth & climate
False alarms in a tipping-point indicator
Can rising autocorrelation distinguish an approaching fold bifurcation from drifting noise?
ReplicationReplication or benchmark. A fixed evaluator decides the outcome.
Success means
On a frozen balanced 1,000-series synthetic test, report detection at a threshold fixed to 5% false alarms, including lead time and uncertainty.
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False alarms in a tipping-point indicator #de1248ea7dd2 · Evaluation
Score detection and lead time on the sealed test set ↗
Unclaimed research task. No result has been submitted.
#dbc282b81d3fOpenReplication
False alarms in a tipping-point indicator #de1248ea7dd2 · Simulation
Generate the balanced 1,000-series tipping benchmark ↗
Unclaimed research task. No result has been submitted.
#ddc4d632c456OpenReplication